Am I seeing opportunity, or chasing it?
Check market conditions and wait for confirmation before increasing exposure, rather than reacting to a rising price.
THE PROJECT 10X PLATFORM
From market evidence
to a decision.
The Exposure Framework turns market signals into rules for taking risk, protecting capital and redeploying cash.
The live platform is in development.
FROM SIGNAL TO ACTION
PROJECT 10X
Exposure Framework V3
Adding risk on weakness. Reducing risk into cycle tops.
Select a stage to explore its rules.01 / RORO
Weekly newsletterRisk-On Risk-Off
Should I add or reduce exposure?
Risk-On
Has RORO flipped green after a significant drawdown?
Yes Check these confirmations in order.
- 1
Green for two weekly closes?
- 2
If no, has RORO #11 MegaTrend flipped green?
- 3
If no, has there been a clear regime shift?
First confirmation met: increase exposure, then resume normal RORO management.
None met: do nothing; continue RORO monitoring.
No post-drawdown flip? Continue to the Exposure Rule.
Risk-Off
Has there been a prolonged macro bear or bear-market drawdown?
The V3 check is a prolonged macro bear (4/6 mo, macro below 50%) and/or a bear-market-type drawdown.
Yes: do nothing; continue RORO monitoring.
No: reduce exposure to 0%.
After reducing exposure, assess the CDF deployment branch.
This is a guide to the decision rules, not a live signal or a trading instruction. Dated readings and commentary are published in the PROJECT 10X research.
INSPECTABLE BY DESIGN
A framework should show its work.
The published RORO backtest examines how the system responded to changing market conditions. It tests RORO, not the full V3 framework or a live portfolio.
20trades in the published backtest
~7 yrstested across full market cycles
~3trades per year on average
Hypothetical backtest, not live returns. Small sample: 20 trades. Costs affect outcomes; past results do not reliably predict future performance.
A PLAN FOR CHANGING MARKETS
When to lean in.
When to step back.
What would make me step back?
Define when to take profits or reduce exposure before a difficult market forces an emotional decision.
If I step out, how do I get back in?
Use defined conditions to redeploy capital. Holding cash needs a re-entry plan, not a guess at the bottom.
See the public portfolio